MODEL RANK VS. MARKET COST

Edge targets.
Off the edge.

This is an evidence board—not a certainty claim. Edge Targets are players worth targeting at their current draft cost. Off the Edge identifies players whose draft cost, role, or risk makes them dangerous selections at their current price.

Verified data snapshot · captured Sep 11, 6:23 PM UTC Player-specific evidence verified

Evidence standards + reliability tiers

Official transactions and team updates · credentialed reporting · verified market data · independent medical review · corroborated football analysis

Tier 1: Official NFL/team transactions, injury reports, and roster moves · Tier 2: Credentialed beat reporters and direct coach/player reporting · Tier 3: Independent specialist review and established football analytics · Tier 4: Secondary fantasy-football reporting and aggregation · Tier 5: Unconfirmed community or social signals; held until verified. Reports tracing to the same original information are deduplicated. Discovery-only signals remain outside the model until verified, and complete evidence provenance is retained privately.

SCORING

HOW TO READ IT

Edge Targets require a meaningful price gap plus at least two supporting football signals. Off the Edge requires both an overpriced draft cost and researched downside; an ordinary injury tag cannot qualify by itself. Verified draft-platform data supplies the market reference, and independently confirmed role, efficiency, coaching, line, and recovery context drives the Weekly Edge evaluation.

VERIFIED VALUE ABOVE COST

Edge Targets

#20EDGE RANK

DeVonta Smith

PHI · WR · 33.4 · R3.09

Verified role or team-context upgrade · Opportunity profile 70/100 · Projection value 68/100

+13PICK GAP

OPP 70PROJ 68CONF 90%

#4EDGE RANK

De'Von Achane

MIA · RB · 13.5 · R2.02

Verified role or team-context upgrade · Opportunity profile 69/100 · Projection value 82/100

+10PICK GAP

OPP 69PROJ 82CONF 88%

#12EDGE RANK

Javonte Williams

DAL · RB · 30.6 · R3.07

Verified role or team-context upgrade · Opportunity profile 75/100 · Projection value 72/100

+19PICK GAP

OPP 75PROJ 72CONF 87%

#56EDGE RANK

Kyle Pitts

ATL · TE · 71.1 · R6.11

Verified role or team-context upgrade · Opportunity profile 58/100 · Verified upgrade: Usage and scheme keep the breakout path open

+15PICK GAP

OPP 58PROJ 54CONF 86%

#19EDGE RANK

Chris Olave

NO · WR · 29.1 · R3.05

Verified role or team-context upgrade · Opportunity profile 64/100 · Projection value 70/100

+10PICK GAP

OPP 64PROJ 70CONF 85%

#32EDGE RANK

Emeka Egbuka

TB · WR · 41.3 · R4.05

Opportunity profile 67/100 · Projection value 65/100 · 5/5 OL starters return

+9PICK GAP

OPP 67PROJ 65CONF 85%

#13EDGE RANK

Kenneth Walker

KC · RB · 17.5 · R2.06

Opportunity profile 61/100 · Projection value 79/100 · 4/5 OL starters return

+5PICK GAP

OPP 61PROJ 79CONF 85%

#133EDGE RANK

Jalen Nailor

LV · WR · 169.2 · R15.01

Verified role or team-context upgrade · Favorable coaching fit · Verified upgrade: Starter usage may be underrepresented by ADP

+36PICK GAP

OPP 49PROJ 43CONF 84%

#85EDGE RANK

Quentin Johnston

LAC · WR · 103.3 · R9.07

Opportunity profile 59/100 · Favorable coaching fit · 1/5 OL starters return

+18PICK GAP

OPP 59PROJ 50CONF 84%

#33EDGE RANK

D'Andre Swift

CHI · RB · 46.6 · R4.11

Opportunity profile 64/100 · Projection value 68/100 · 4/5 OL starters return

+14PICK GAP

OPP 64PROJ 68CONF 84%

#30EDGE RANK

Ladd McConkey

LAC · WR · 35.8 · R3.12

Opportunity profile 63/100 · Projection value 66/100 · Favorable coaching fit

+6PICK GAP

OPP 63PROJ 66CONF 84%

#47EDGE RANK

Rome Odunze

CHI · WR · 64.2 · R6.04

Opportunity profile 61/100 · Projection value 62/100 · 4/5 OL starters return

+17PICK GAP

OPP 61PROJ 62CONF 83%

#31EDGE RANK

Zay Flowers

BAL · WR · 40.8 · R4.05

Opportunity profile 67/100 · Projection value 65/100 · Verified monitor: Week 1 expected; practice return remains a checkpoint

+10PICK GAP

OPP 67PROJ 65CONF 83%

#62EDGE RANK

Rhamondre Stevenson

NE · RB · 71.3 · R6.11

Verified role or team-context upgrade · Projection value 58/100 · Verified upgrade: Opening-night workload strengthens

+9PICK GAP

OPP 53PROJ 58CONF 82%

#52EDGE RANK

MarShawn Lloyd

GB · RB · 97.0 · R9.01

Verified role or team-context upgrade · Projection value 56/100 · Verified upgrade: Exempt-list transaction opens Green Bay's lead workload

+45PICK GAP

OPP 56PROJ 56CONF 81%

VERIFIED COST ABOVE VALUE

Off the Edge

#117EDGE RANK

George Kittle

SF · TE · 83.5 · R7.12

Research-backed missed-time or workload reduction · Elevated reinjury or role-loss risk · 4/5 OL starters return

-33PICK GAP

OPP 58PROJ 48CONF 85%

#116EDGE RANK

A.J. Brown

NE · WR · 19.6 · R2.08

Verified role, availability, or team-context downgrade · Opportunity profile 45/100 · Research-backed missed-time or workload reduction

-96PICK GAP

OPP 45PROJ 53CONF 83%

#153EDGE RANK

Tyler Allgeier

ARI · RB · 132.5 · R12.01

Opportunity profile 41/100 · Projection value 33/100 · Verified monitor: Conditional opening-week opportunity

-20PICK GAP

OPP 41PROJ 33CONF 82%

#70EDGE RANK

Terry McLaurin

WAS · WR · 56.6 · R5.09

Verified role, availability, or team-context downgrade · Opportunity profile 44/100 · Verified downgrade: Target competition increases with Diggs

-13PICK GAP

OPP 44PROJ 61CONF 82%

#173EDGE RANK

Josh Jacobs

GB · RB · 49.2 · R5.01

Verified role, availability, or team-context downgrade · Opportunity profile 46/100 · Projection value 31/100

-124PICK GAP

OPP 46PROJ 31CONF 80%

#68EDGE RANK

TreVeyon Henderson

NE · RB · 58.9 · R5.11

Research-backed missed-time or workload reduction · Elevated reinjury or role-loss risk · 4/5 OL starters return

-9PICK GAP

OPP 51PROJ 54CONF 80%

#238EDGE RANK

Alvin Kamara

NO · RB · 167.4 · R14.11

Verified role, availability, or team-context downgrade · Opportunity profile 34/100 · Projection value 25/100

-71PICK GAP

OPP 34PROJ 25CONF 77%

#147EDGE RANK

Mike Washington

LV · RB · 119.9 · R10.12

Opportunity profile 38/100 · Projection value 38/100 · 3/5 OL starters return

-27PICK GAP

OPP 38PROJ 38CONF 75%

#171EDGE RANK

Tank Bigsby

PHI · RB · 151.9 · R13.08

Opportunity profile 39/100 · Projection value 30/100 · 5/5 OL starters return

-19PICK GAP

OPP 39PROJ 30CONF 75%

#236EDGE RANK

Isiah Pacheco

DET · RB · 194.0 · R17.02

Verified role, availability, or team-context downgrade · Opportunity profile 30/100 · Projection value 22/100

-42PICK GAP

OPP 30PROJ 22CONF 70%

#218EDGE RANK

Chris Bell

MIA · WR · 197.3 · R17.05

Opportunity profile 26/100 · Projection value 26/100 · 4/5 OL starters return

-21PICK GAP

OPP 26PROJ 26CONF 67%

#177EDGE RANK

Jordyn Tyson

NO · WR · 121.0 · R11.01

Opportunity profile 35/100 · Projection value 27/100 · Research-backed missed-time or workload reduction

-56PICK GAP

OPP 35PROJ 27CONF 63%

#141EDGE RANK

De'Zhaun Stribling

SF · WR · 112.0 · R10.04

Projection value 36/100 · Research-backed missed-time or workload reduction · Elevated reinjury or role-loss risk

-29PICK GAP

OPP 48PROJ 36CONF 63%

#170EDGE RANK

Jonah Coleman

DEN · RB · 146.9 · R13.03

Opportunity profile 40/100 · Projection value 29/100 · 5/5 OL starters return

-23PICK GAP

OPP 40PROJ 29CONF 61%

Edge targets.Off the edge.

Edge Targets

DeVonta Smith

De'Von Achane

Javonte Williams

Kyle Pitts

Chris Olave

Emeka Egbuka

Kenneth Walker

Jalen Nailor

Quentin Johnston

D'Andre Swift

Ladd McConkey

Rome Odunze

Zay Flowers

Rhamondre Stevenson

MarShawn Lloyd

Off the Edge

George Kittle

A.J. Brown

Tyler Allgeier

Terry McLaurin

Josh Jacobs

TreVeyon Henderson

Alvin Kamara

Mike Washington

Tank Bigsby

Isiah Pacheco

Chris Bell

Jordyn Tyson

De'Zhaun Stribling

Jonah Coleman

Edge targets.
Off the edge.